Why poor countries stopped catching up

(davidoks.blog)

48 points | by j-bos 2 hours ago

17 comments

  • A_D_E_P_T 1 hour ago
    The entire essay obsesses over GDP convergence while ignoring that GDP (especially in the West) increasingly measures asset shuffling, imputed rents, and healthcare billing rather than anything humans actually experience. (Healthcare, finance, real estate, and legal services combined are ~40% of US GDP!)

    So we've got 3000 words eulogizing a metric that tells you more about financialization than flourishing. Look at life expectancy, infant mortality, or caloric intake and you'll find a more interesting story -- with some poor countries doing very well, and increasingly so, whereas others are on a fairly grim trajectory.

    • raincole 1 hour ago
      US tourists spend $177B per year abroad. When they spend their money in other countries[0], they surely experience the benefit.

      The universal experience of Americans visiting Japan: how is such a developed place so affordable? Then they think Japan must do something exceptionally excellent. But the truth is it feels weirdly affordable because they are spending their American salary there.

      [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Tourism_rankings#:~:text...

      • shermantanktop 25 minutes ago
        And they get the opposite feeling when they pay $30 for a hamburger in Zurich.
    • hirako2000 11 minutes ago
      Economists are obsessed with numbers even when numbers simply contradicts numbers they aren't familiar with.

      Incorporating sociology, for what it's worth would radically change the picture. Do economists travel? And what is a poor country anyway.. Zimbabwe is put on the same table as south east Asian countries..where do geopolitical aspects get into considerations for countries like Cuba or more recently Venezuela or Iran. Do these things even matter.

      No surprise economists have lost legitimity for so many. They don't predict or diagnose the economy of the nations they live in, trying to explain what they call the "global south" as some call it is rather arrogant.

      What this research may have got right is to nuance what their predecessor had claimed. But that wasn't too hard.

      My tip for economists: go live in rural areas in each country you claim to diagnose. Speak to the locals, grand ma can tell you what it cost to get clean water just a few decades ago vs now. Maybe you will start to understand what poverty even means.

    • rayiner 1 hour ago
      GDP per capita is highly correlated with metrics like infant mortality.
      • topaz0 1 hour ago
        Life expectancy vs GDP per capita: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy-vs-gdp-pe...

        I don't have an R^2, but clear to me that it's far from one.

        Likewise for infant mortality rate: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-gdp-per-c...

        Edit to add: point being that a weak correlation, even if it is indisputably real, leaves a lot of room for other factors to be operative when it comes to particular differences.

        • strken 55 minutes ago
          I notice that the two most obvious outliers for low GDP high life expectancy countries are North Korea and Syria, and the low GDP low life expectancy outliers are three African petrostates.

          My interpretation is that this confirms both points. Yes, petrostates with concentrated wealth, states with dubious truthfulness, and those ravaged by war are all cases where GDP doesn't tell the full story. I'm not sure that tells us GDP is useless when applied to where most HN users live, though.

          • topaz0 7 minutes ago
            I didn't say it was useless, just that saying there's a correlation is not a refutation of OP's claim that financialization is an important confounding factor.
        • rayiner 1 hour ago
          What does it look like if you separate out east asians and remove countries with an inflated GDP per capita from resource exports (like Botswana)?
          • topaz0 46 minutes ago
            It looks like cherry picking.

            More to the point, it looks like you are attempting to identify some of the particular factors that might affect gdp or health outcomes in ways that aren't correlated, and exclude cases where those are the operative factors. Which would provide support for the thesis that there are other operative factors, as suggested by OP.

            • rayiner 9 minutes ago
              It’s not cherry-picking. The question is: does GDP correlate with things we care about? In answering that question it makes sense to hold other factors constant. Asians have a longevity advantage in virtually every society where they’re found, so it makes sense to separate out the asian countries. It also makes sense to remove outliers where a single export makes GDP per capita seem artificially large.
      • bryanlarsen 1 hour ago
        Which makes it even more interesting when the two highly correlated metrics are moving in different directions relatively.
      • danny_codes 1 hour ago
        Though if you use us as a data point, seems like it goes down if you get too high
    • readthenotes1 55 minutes ago
      "Healthcare, finance, real estate, and legal services combined are ~40% of US GDP!"

      Healthcare is more properly medical care. There's very little health care or wellness preservation compared to treatment and repair.

      I would argue that legal services are more care-like, but there is a fair amount of treatment and repair.

    • AnimalMuppet 1 hour ago
      Healthcare is far more than just billing. Healthcare is why I didn't have a heart attack (two stents in my heart). It's why I didn't go blind (cataracts). It's stuff that I directly benefit from.
  • WalterBright 56 minutes ago
    A long essay, which ignored the elephant in the room.

    Prosperity and growth come from free markets. The correlation is very strong. Poor countries are poor because they eschew free markets.

    • derf_ 14 minutes ago
      This is the standard advice from the World Bank, the IMF, etc., and it does developing countries a huge disservice. South Korea banned the import of foreign cars from 1968 to 1988 while it developed its own automobile industry (Japanese imports were banned until 1998). Now Huyndai Motor Group sells more cars than GM [0]. That firm absolutely could not have survived if exposed to the ravages of the free market during the two decades it took them to learn how to produce cars to a globally competitive level. There are many other examples of protectionism in the developmental success that is South Korea. The idea ("infant industry protection") comes from Alexander Hamilton. The US relied on it heavily, too, in its early history.

      If South Korea had followed the standard developmental economists' advice they would still be sewing garments and growing soybeans instead of manufacturing semiconductors, consumer electronics, and appliances (among many other things).

      [0] https://statranker.org/economy/leading-global-car-manufactur...

    • rayiner 44 minutes ago
      Yes, but also political stability and rule of law. It doesn’t have to be “rule of law” in the sense of liberal democracy. But it has to be reasonably fair and predictable for routine business issues. That’s one thing China has focused a lot on that doesn’t get mentioned much. Apart from politically charged topics or pillars of their industrial policy, you actually can get a relatively fair shake from Chinese courts these days.
      • WalterBright 29 minutes ago
        Political stability and rule of law are essential ingredients for free markets.
  • econgs321 1 hour ago
    Classic example of economic theory managing to dress up a kind of ahistorical theology as respectable science.

    Consider this: if you take 'countries' as given (questionable), and some become rich whereas others remain or become poor, by induction you'd expect those trends to continue. A country that has remained poor for decades is likely to remain poor for decades, etc. "Bad governments" and other conditions that create poverty are not some kind of mean-reverting aberration.

    The economists will carry on though, and thanks to their connections with finance and government, their prestige will never truly wink out.

  • hn_throwaway_99 1 hour ago
    Is it against the rules to say that most of the comments here (at least right now) are drastically missing the point? "Rich countries exploit poor ones!!" - ok, fine, you could argue that's been happening since the beginning of time, doesn't change anything about the conclusions of the article. "The article obsesses over GDP convergence!!" - you can argue GDP is not the perfect metric but the fact is a lot of these poor countries have not been converging on lots of quality of life metrics that matter.

    The fundamental thrust of the article is that poor countries only "converged" for a short while due to the Chinese-driven commodity boom, and I think this argument is very compelling. Worse, as history has shown tons of times, commodity booms often end up being bad for a country in the long term because they don't lead to meaningful investments in other productivity-improving endeavors (e.g. Dutch disease that the article mentions).

    And I think a subtext of this article is that the economic profession in general has a ton of soul searching to do. Too often economics has depicted rosy outcomes for a host of activities where it has just been flat out wrong. This article goes into detail about how "convergence" almost never happened except for a short "sugar high" driven my Chinese commodity demand. Similarly, I've seen a few mea culpas over the years arguing that the once orthodox view that globalization would be great for everyone failed to take into account how it could contribute to destabilizing democracies as the "economic losers" in rich countries started to demand more political power, one aspect in the rise of populism and some of its dangerous effects.

    • shermantanktop 17 minutes ago
      Economists do a lot of soul searching, it seems, but quite enough to quit being economists.

      I wonder if anyone has calculated the economic impact of diverting smart, math-capable thinkers from some other useful pursuit into economics. Surely they’d be more productive as accountants, or car mechanics, or as people who throw bricks through windows in the dead of night.

      From the outside it looks like the field is an intellectual circular firing squad that produces little of tangible value.

    • marcosdumay 46 minutes ago
      > the fact is a lot of these poor countries have not been converging on lots of quality of life metrics that matter

      What kinds of measurements are you referring to? Because poor countries are absurdly clearly converging since the end of WWII, but only if you don't ignore things like political independence, lack of civil wars, lack of state sponsored terror, or food security.

      Those things contribute less to the GDP than fridges that break every 4 years.

      Anyway, yes, there is some serious discussion on whether that process has stopped. This article isn't very good, the source it's extending from isn't trying to compare actual wealth, but still something may have happened recently.

      And yes, it's probably the culprit everybody suspects, and economists should be louder in recognizing that some of their schools are in fact fraudulent.

    • bibimsz 1 hour ago
      [flagged]
      • manphone 1 hour ago
        Here, you dropped your dog whistle.
        • bibimsz 28 minutes ago
          are we allowed to speak plainly about these matters?
          • hn_throwaway_99 16 minutes ago
            Fine, I'll speak plainly, because your original post was exactly backwards. "Economic losers" in rich countries are those who did not benefit from globalization - think of all the hollowed out Rust Belt towns in the US, smaller villages in France that aren't on major train lines, etc. If anything, immigrants are largely economic winners because they are able to change their situation and go where there is more abundant opportunity.
  • tbrownaw 48 minutes ago
    I assume someone somewhere has a dataset for technology diffusion broken out by country or at least region? Like so[1], but as a table and not limited to just here.

    Perhaps that sort of thing could be useful enough to justify the extra bytes?

    [1] https://techliberation.com/2009/05/28/on-measuring-technolog...

  • MinimalAction 1 hour ago
    Nice article! The upshot is that the boom of Chinese commodity prices in the mid-2010s is what stopped poor countries from catching up. That's a high level answer, but there's more nuance to it. In many places, I firmly believe the poor governance added with unnecessary bureaucracy is how half the countries lose sight on development. The prime example is India and to some extent Brazil.
    • dartharva 18 minutes ago
      "Poor governance" tends to be an easy catchall term to shift blame on for economic failures, but reality is, like you said, a lot more nuanced. India's socialist government looks justifiably horrible and inefficient when looked at through a rational economist's glasses, but what many don't realize is that its main priority for most of its existence has been stabilizing regions and preventing balkanization, which it has achieved significantly, sadly having to fall back to political nationalism (another catchall term the author of this article himself uses to push some blame) and socialist federal overreach to achieve it. We tend to be quick to notice failures but God knows how many circumstances we have dodged that were too close to disruptive civil war without recognizing it.
  • ashivkum 1 hour ago
    "What if it was just China?" is a reasonable guess for many of the dazzling claims of statistical worldwide improvement made by Steven Pinker/Noah Smith and their ilk
    • GMoromisato 1 hour ago
      But even if "it was just China", it doesn't disprove the core fact that the world is getting better. China is almost 20% of the world by population, and its development has brought hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.

      Plus, it might be possible for other countries to emulate China and similarly grow.

      • ashivkum 56 minutes ago
        Yes, typically what this would disprove is the thesis that neoliberal economics are what have led to the decline in global poverty
        • GMoromisato 34 minutes ago
          Maybe--I'm no expert.

          But I'm pretty sure that neoliberal economics--particularly free trade--are what allowed China to rise so spectacularly.

    • duxup 1 hour ago
      That's what always surprised me about the whole concept of BRICS nations. Those countries have more interest in competing with each other to get access to other markets than to work/stick together in any way.
      • SanjayMehta 57 minutes ago
        What I don't understand is the concept of NATO or the EU: why would a group of countries willingly band together as "happy vassals," as the Belgian PM put it.
      • thaumasiotes 1 hour ago
        > Those countries have more interest in competing with each other to get access to other markets than to work/stick together in any way.

        Access to markets isn't an exclusive asset. They don't compete over it, and mostly they can't compete over it, because they already have it.

    • energy123 50 minutes ago
  • deaux 1 hour ago
    If the modern right's obsession with "ivory tower academics" was real instead of a stick with which to beat ideas they don't like, the field they'd focus on would be economics, not gender studies. Most of it is astrology for those who like to wear suits. It has been decades since the complexity and chaos factor of the real world has overtaken the ability to make meaningful correlations or predictions in all but the most straightforward cases where one institute (e.g. a central bank) controls everything.

    It's made even worse by the great bias towards "everything about globalism and capitalism is obviously fantastic for the world!".

    This case is such a prime example of both of the above. Firstly, the one-off China event having such a big impact on its own that general theories are entirely irrelevant. Second, of course

    > "Now that those were swept away—they were, he said, merely a “temporary phenomenon”—the catch-up growth that economic theory predicted had finally arrived. Globalization was working; development was succeeding; the gap between rich and poor countries was closing.

    • anon291 30 minutes ago
      Everything useful about economics was figured out ages ago. Free markets and the rule of law guarantee wealth and prosperity for the masses
  • seizethecheese 1 hour ago
    Catch up growth is premised on the assumption that productivity producing innovations diffuse through the world. This assumption is true, of course, but not universally. Many technologies also rely on culture, institutions, human capital.
  • rayiner 1 hour ago
    Social sciences departments around the world should be working overtime to explain the first chart on this page: https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/latin-america-economic-gr...

    It’s a graph of regional GDP per capita as a percentage of the U.S. Latin America was around 40% around 1950, but has declined to around 25% by 2018. Sub-saharan africa has slowly lost ground since 1950. Southeast asia has gone from almost as poor as Africa in 1950 to almost as rich as southern europe (50% of US GDP per capita).

    What makes some countries rich and some countries poor? In the modern era, I think political dysfunction explains a lot. Developing countries with neoliberal governments that started out authoritarian (Singapore, Korea, Taiwan) have done well. Countries that can’t maintain a stable government have suffered.

    In my home country, they were experiencing 5-6% per capita GDP growth for about 15 years. But then a motley coalition of idealistic students and Islamists overthrew the government. I suspect that will lead to a lengthy period of slow growth, because who wants to invest in a country where people regularly overthrow the government?

    • manoDev 20 minutes ago
      This graph just shows the different outcomes from Monroe Doctrine vs. Marshall Plan and other stimulus.

      Since the 50's, Europe and select Asian countries received large investments from the US; Latin America received coups supported by CIA and governments that sold out to foreign interests.

    • marcosdumay 44 minutes ago
      > The owner of this website (www.gisreportsonline.com) does not allow hotlinking to that resource
    • umanwizard 59 minutes ago
      Sorry, coy “in my country” posting is one of my biggest online pet peeves. Why not just say that you mean Bangladesh?
      • rayiner 50 minutes ago
        I just say it so it doesn’t seem like I’m cherry picking a random example.
    • selimthegrim 1 hour ago
      Hasina had gone nuts and was torturing people. I don’t think people are gonna wanna invest in a country where someone like that is in charge plus Adani already has them over a barrel.
      • rayiner 1 hour ago
        China does that and people are fine investing there. Bangladesh isn’t Vermont, you can’t apply the same rules. However many people Hasina killed will pale in comparison to the excess child deaths that will result from interrupting GDP growth.
    • bibimsz 1 hour ago
      [flagged]
  • kazinator 42 minutes ago
    > Globalization was working; development was succeeding; the gap between rich and poor countries was closing. So there was tremendous reason for optimism about the future.

    Even if that had turned out true, so what? The gap between rich and poor countries closing is not the same thing as the gap between the rich and poor closing!

  • cyberax 12 minutes ago
    I think that the answer is the death of democracy and the golden age of corruption in poor countries. During the 80-s and early 90-s, the Western world was still trying to defend nascent democracies. It was lampooned by everyone ("Team America: World Police", anyone?) but it _did_ work to some degree.

    Around 2000-s the West switched into the "whatever you do, we don't care as long as you stay inside your country" mode. Moreover, the West made it easy to expatriate money. You could earn your fortune in Russia by stealing money from schools via various corrupt schemes, but once you crossed the border of Russia, you instantly became a respected businessman who should be treated with respect.

    The last year's Nobel in Economics was awarded to Daron Acemoglu for his work on extractive versus inclusive institutions ("Why Nations Fail"). And the West unwittingly (?) recreated the same conditions that resulted in development gaps during the early colonial era.

    And yes, the West is to blame here. Not China. Pretty much nobody in, say, Congo is abusing child labor to get money to emigrate to China. But I bet that quite a few people from Congo now have very nice properties in London.

  • topaz0 47 minutes ago
    > [...] three factors [...] Capital accumulation is one.

    The obvious omission here is well developed in Imperialism, The Highest Stage of Capitalism: it's hard to accumulate capital when all of the productivity growth from foreign "investment" by the rich world is captured by the "investors".

  • jmclnx 1 hour ago
    Our current world system is based on exploitation by the powerful on the weak. It has been this way since the dawn of time at many levels. So now, powerful countries take resources from less powerful countries. There are many ways this can be done, so here we are.
    • WalterBright 31 minutes ago
      Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan have very little in the way of resources, but economically they do very well.

      Free markets!

    • nlitened 1 hour ago
      I wonder if there is an example of a country that doesn’t have resources, so “powerful countries” cannot “take” them?

      Or every country has resources, and weak countries are those that prefer to sell them for cheap rather than work on making use of them?

      • bibimsz 1 hour ago
        England, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, and Taiwan, etc. None of them have vast natural resources.
        • umanwizard 1 hour ago
          England had coal at the start of the Industrial Revolution.
          • WalterBright 31 minutes ago
            England adopted free markets which started the IR.
    • samantp 1 hour ago
      So true. There is a full powerful - weak spectrum. Those not at the top or bottom, in-between ones, turn a blind eye to this and accept it as a harsh reality of nature, enjoying spoils of this chain in the process. Worse, become servile to those above them and ruthless to those below. And as if this were not enough, doors of fashion philanthropy also open up for them!
      • bibimsz 6 minutes ago
        what makes a country weak?
    • rayiner 53 minutes ago
      Who did Singapore exploit to get rich? Taiwan? Korea?

      You could be forgiven for believing that if we didn’t have literal real-world experiments in the 20th century where countries went from dirt poor to rich without doing any of the shit you think makes countries rich.

      What’s most offensive about your virtue signaling is that it helps keep people poor. If we had kids in college studying how Lee Kuan Yew systematically made his country rich, instead of studying fucking socialism, you’d save literally millions of lives.

    • bibimsz 1 hour ago
      this is cope. no continent has received more assistance than Africa. they are the opposite of exploited.
      • topaz0 59 minutes ago
        A huge fraction of that assistance (e.g. the IMF) has been conditioned on opening up their economies to "fair" foreign exploitation. It's not some benevolent gift, generally.
        • bibimsz 50 minutes ago
          There's always an excuse.
  • EGreg 1 hour ago
    Automation, d’oh

    Outsourcing worked while we didnt have AI to the level we needed

    It was always gonna be a temporary stopgap. Sorry, the global community doesnt have enough empathy for humans THAT far away to actually share wealth w them. At least we graduated to having social safety nets within nations.

    • rayiner 1 hour ago
      “Sharing wealth” is an idea that has millions of children’s blood all over it. It’s a recipe for keeping countries poor and backwards, so children die of disease, hunger, and political instability.

      When my dad was born in a village in the British Dominion of Pakistan, India/Bangladesh/Pakistan and Singapore were similarly poor. Nehru went to Cambridge and learned about socialism. Lee Kuan Yew went to Cambridge and learned about capitalism and high-trust British people: https://youtu.be/b_6H26fpZp8

      The rest is history. Singaporeans now get to stay in their home country, while desis flee to Anglo countries to escape the society Nehru and their grandparents created.

      Waiting for Europeans to give you money is a loser mentality, and people peddling that mentality in the name of “empathy” are causing harm. What the third world needs from Europe is the social and political technology that Europe itself used to become rich. That’s what people like LKY understood that so many third world leaders failed to learn.

  • bibimsz 1 hour ago
    [flagged]
    • fisisj1383 55 minutes ago
      Of all the comments that are flagged or moderated on here, the fate of this one will be quite telling of the HN community culture. ‘Tech’ brings shame on itself by how it relates to the world and humanity at large
      • GMoromisato 41 minutes ago
        I don't think this comment should be flagged, not because I agree with it, but because:

        a) Hiding it does not change minds. On the contrary, hiding it makes it seem like we fear the idea. And fear can give ideas power.

        b) Hiding it only protects those who believe this. If it were visible, they might someday grow ashamed of it.

        • bibimsz 41 minutes ago
          or, hear me out... I'm right.
          • GMoromisato 37 minutes ago
            Now I think you're just trolling. In that case, I'm glad it was flagged.
      • bibimsz 46 minutes ago
        I agree tech has long been complicit in censorship - shameful.
    • seizethecheese 1 hour ago
      You may be right but what if IQ is downstream of GDP not the other way around? No dog in this fight, just a philosophical question.
      • GMoromisato 39 minutes ago
        I wish I could reply to the original post, but I can't because it is flagged. But if I could reply, I would say the following:

        This post is almost certainly wrong--as in, the existence of Big Foot is more likely.

        Take an example like Haiti vs. Dominican Republic, two halves of one island. Haiti at #175 is near the bottom of the list in GDP per person, while DR is #71--above both China and Mexico. And consider that as recently as 1960, both had similar GDP per person.

        And of course, there's the famous example of North Korea ($600 GDP per person) vs. South Korea ($50,000+ GDP per person).

        If countries can diverge so radically, even though they share very similar land and peoples, it is much more likely that the differences between rich countries and poor countries is due entirely to external factors, like governance and history, and not the IQ of people.

        • bibimsz 34 minutes ago
          I will grant you that the most oppressive regime in the world does have an impact on GDP in Korea. But DR and Haiti are not the same genetically. Haitians African ancestry is 85% and 95%. In the Dominican Republic is 38% and 40%. So I don't see that as an exception to the rule.
          • GMoromisato 12 minutes ago
            But they were economically equal in 1960 with similar ancestry, so external factors must be the cause.
      • jopython 45 minutes ago
        The existing data leans heavily against "IQ is just downstream of GDP."
  • orionblastar 1 hour ago
    > In the past, he said, poor countries were failing to outgrow rich ones because of unfortunate circumstances (“the war, bad policies, and dysfunctional institutions that afflicted developing nations in the mid-20th century”)

    Or is it the wealthy exploiting the poor through low wages?

    • EGreg 1 hour ago
      They’re not exploiting them, it is a function of not having really strong safety nets or even UBI.

      So a lot of people are desperate to survive and keep a roof over their head.

      And technology makes money flow upwards to the rich and corporations.

      Soon with AI employment is going to become pity-employment. Make-work jobs. Because people just can’t seem to trust other people to be charge of their own time and have free money. Overton window in USA is not there yet. So capital will find ridiculous ways to exploit labor via the desperation of the masses. Maybe gig economies and race to the bottom for service providers as out-of-work people flood the market with useless crap, who knows.