The secret to success for OpenAI, Anthropic and labs is the vision that they saw 10 years back and kept working on it. We're in awe of how models like GPT-6 Astra and Claude Opus 5.5 are performing today, but it's important to understand that they've been working on this before we knew about AI.
The next big thing is Robots and some stealth company building today is going to be a trillion-dollar giant in few years time.
That’s just hindsight. People work on a lot of different things. Breakthoughs and cumulative improvements reaching a tipping point might happen or not.
Right. If you're new to the area, it may seem like AI came out of nowhere in 2022. If you dig a little, you'll be amazed that it somehow came from nowhere in ~2012. If you dig even more, you realize there was a wave in the late 90s, early 2000s about "machine learning" (e.g. SVMs) and before it there was an 80s wave of both neural nets, agent models, and logic-based AI, probabilistic graphical models. Then you dig more and you realize AI originated from that Dartmouth workshop by Minksy and others in the 50s. Then you dig more and realize McCulloch and Pitts already modeled neural nets as little logic circuits in the 1940s. Then you realize the role of Shannon, Turing etc. Then you realize that computers actually arose in a milieu with a much more AI-shaped vision, cybernetics etc. than what we today think of as computing (PCs etc). And the precursors in the thought-formalization and mechanization trend in math and philosophy at the start of the 20th century. And even more back Leibniz's calculus ratiocinator and "calculemus!" slogan to settle debates by reducing argumentation to computation.
The point is, typically when something seems like it came out of nowhere, it just means you didn't dig deep enough. Ideas don't come at an instant, fully formed like Athene from Zeus' forehead. It's brick by brick, one twist on an existing idea and zeitgeist at a time.
To me it's more about the funders staying engaged. For the people working in the startup as long as it's exciting and you're getting paid enough it seems really fun to get that much runway - why would you leave unless there are personality/direction conflicts??
Not sure what happened on this page, but I saw so much AI tells on this particular page that I had to check archive.org and apparently the page has only been around for two years.
Interesting that Anthropic led the way here.
The next big thing is Robots and some stealth company building today is going to be a trillion-dollar giant in few years time.
Don't confuse AI with LLMs. "We" know about AI for a long time. We even have a term for when AI fail expectations, AI winters.
The point is, typically when something seems like it came out of nowhere, it just means you didn't dig deep enough. Ideas don't come at an instant, fully formed like Athene from Zeus' forehead. It's brick by brick, one twist on an existing idea and zeitgeist at a time.
Only one remains at OpenAI.
If you ask me, it'd be better if none of them remained at OpenAI.
https://web.archive.org/web/20260000000000*/https://openai.c...