They talk a bit about where the AI companies are supposed to get their revenue from. I’d like to see these analyses go a step further and talk about how those AI customers are supposed to come up with that money as well.
For example, the article suggests $1T from enterprise productivity tooling. A quick Google suggests the global enterprise productivity tooling market is only worth about $0.1T right now.
Do we really expect all the world’s corporations to suddenly up their annual spend by 1,000% on average? Why?
Keep in mind wealth is not a fixed thing. If AI makes their businesses more productive, it would allow the creation of more wealth, giving them more money to pay for AI with.
This of course hinges on the big if: does AI create wealth? I think yes, but maybe not $6 trillion of it in five years.
> This of course hinges on the big if: does AI create wealth? I think yes, but maybe not $6 trillion of it in five years.
There is also the question of time scale. Growing a market takes time. Assuming the numbers above are the right order of magnitude, we are not going from 0.1 to 1 in a year. So even if the number would make sense over longer time frames, it can still be unsustainable for a significant amount of time before that.
Like the Internet at the end if the 1990s, basically.
At a time when corporate CEOs are largely saying that they can't see that AI has improved office productivity at all, why should we believe that a killer productivity application of genai that's amazing enough to justify an order of magnitude increase in enterprise spending on productivity tools is just around the corner?
But does crazy speedup of tasks actually yield more productivity? Or does it yield greater numbers of pointless tasks?
Anecdotally, I've seen management using AI to produce more and more flashy looking dashboards and interactive displays of various metrics. Will this help our bottom line?
I think you are mixin wealth with money. In the short run it is a near zero sum game: money should go from A (now obsolete) to B. For example, brick and mortar shops replaced by online shops. For example horse business going bankrupt while car business is booming. Wealth is created in the form of more convenient shopping or travelling, not as $$$. AI might help some businesses with their productivity (creating new wealth), but those business are expected to divert $6T from current expenses (wages, or non AI tooling) towards AI pockets, or steal $6T market share from non-AI business.
>For example horse business going bankrupt while car business is booming.
But also the car business is far larger than the horse business ever was. It is not zero-sum; every time Henry Ford's factory spit out a new model T, actual real wealth was being created.
Money is just a standin for wealth. If we suddenly doubled the amount of wealth in the world, we could just print more dollars to match OR the dollars would just become worth twice as much.
Indeed, it is hard to say exactly how much wealth the internet creates, but it's a lot. E-commerce alone is $30 trillion industry; some estimates put the total economic value of the internet at $200 trillion or higher.
That said, this came too late for investors in the dot-com boom. AI investors may find themselves in a similar situation.
And, perhaps more to this particular point, it came too late for vendors behind the dotcom boom. Lucent Technologies no longer exists. WorldCom no longer exists. Cisco is a shadow of its former self, with a stock price that only recovered last year.
The dotcom bubble burst because the development of the internet could not keep up with expectations, even though investors were correct in principle with their assumption it would generate swaths of wealth. For AI the hope is that AI itself will start to push its own development and adoption sooner rather than later, so the timing issue that killed dotcom investors might instead make AI investors insanely rich. That's why we're still seeing heaps of money getting dumped into it.
It isn't exactly not a zero sum game either though. If you want to sell something you have to have willing buyers with either funds on hand or sufficient credit to make the purchase. So yeah that 6T gotta come from somewhere.
Customers coming up with it is basically fine*, but it's also why the SpaceX IPO chose to use "TAM" as a big number to dangle before investors: if you can do the work of {$6T + markup}/year worth of desk jobs, that's your customers.
However, customers coming up with the money is the easy half of the problem. The hard part is having them pay you.
Wikipedia's valuation is on the small side of {number of people on the internet worldwide} * {peak price of Encyclopaedia Britannica} † despite containing a lot more content.
LLMs can only chase high margins while they're ahead of their competitors; the moment the investment stalls, open weighs catch up, they loose their edge. Cloud compute providers still win on supplying inference, but there too competition will likely lower margins, not justify huge valuations.
NVIDIA may remain as valuable as today, but their P/E ratio will likely shrink a lot even while keeping up the price.
Model makers still have a problem here even if the tech is so useful it rapidly grows the economy: "free" is right behind them almost immediately after they stop.
* under the assumption the tech is real; there's plenty of people here on Hacker News who still dismiss it as a "scam"
† that would be about 13 trillion USD, from what I read
1) This would make stocks worth a lot more and produce more dividends so everyone owning stock would get money to spend.
2) Governments effectively indirectly own ~40% of all business profits via corporate taxes, capital gains taxes, dividend taxes, sales taxes. So governments would also have more revenues to spend/redistribute (this depends on governments not wasting it, spending it on wars etc.)
All money is a merry-go-round when you get down to it.
That doesn't mean the wheels won't fall off, they fall off pretty regularly as is.
The difference between this loop and the previous loops, is that people making the tech used to be pretty straightforward ("invest in me, your money will let me make a machine that lets me fire 90% of my peasants and we can share in the savings"), while today they're all "invest in me, either this will kill everyone or just make the concept of money irrelevant, either way rotflmao".
The historical precedent is those people get other jobs, and/or everyone else in the economy gets richer faster than they get poorer.
If this does or doesn't happen with AI kinda depends how fast it makes multiple different sections of the population unemployed, rather than just one group like "software developer" or "vehicle driver".
That's very much not what happened in the Industrial Revolution. Hand weavers were relatively well-paid, and the new factories were more likely to employ the urban poor - including kids - than to give jobs to people who used to be hand weavers.
It took maybe a century and a half for the modern consumer economy to appear. And it didn't happen until money started being shared into the wider economy for political reasons, not technological ones.
Meanwhile the enclosure of common land was catastrophic for rural populations. Sources of food and pasture disappeared as the Big Houses took them over and turned them into huge single family estates.
> The historical precedent is those people get other jobs
Heh, got fired from my old company for reasons not connected to AI. Then couldn't find job. AI suggested one that is perfect for me, helped me put up webpage (I can do everything from electronics/firmware/backend/iot/cad, but nice webpage is not something I can do easily), then helps me every day to learn new things and make useful products I always wanted to make. And I found something safe for now from AI and big companies - making old equipment work with new systems. No one will touch it, because you have only small projects here and can't extract a lot of value at once, but a single person who can do anything with some help from AI can carve out a whole niche.
I think such solution - thousands of small niches by small entrepreneurs (1 person companies) who can use AI for some small skill they are lacking - are our future and they will absolutely extract a lot of money from people, who hope to make some more money with small optimisations of already working businesses. One example of such small optimisation - making a slightly better wood drying controller for small woodmill owner. He already put up small cabinet with cheap tuya controllers and needs to control them though atrocious app. Now I can make a small module that will add several more sensors, give him some simple dedicated control panel on webpage. Not even medium company would make such small product, because planning phase alone would cost more than what I can charge for whole system and do it in a week.
And it all started with one prompt - "Given my CV, what single person job would you recommend?"
you might make a hypothesis they'd offset operations costs like headcount for this but I think the counterpoint is stronger, if they benefit from increased productivity in your example, why not run more net production from same input.
Still though, the thesis seems based on an assumption that the companies would experience either major growth or major efficiency gain, neither of which really pass the smell test to me. Option 1 growth - money has to come from somewhere ultimately? Option 2 efficiency - put into profit rather than simple offset to AI provider?
Or the AI providers get companies hooked with subsidized pricing that unwinds later and you end up with the Uber/AirBNB situation of market capture and good product reverting to mean level of price/quality over time. Tinfoil hat thinks it ultimately gets squeezed out of retail investors in index funds.
Ultimately I think they’re looking at the taxpayers to bail them out of this bubble. Everyone knows they over invested, no one wants to admit it because they’ll lose money.
What does this mean? I've been using AI as a replacement for both of those for longer than a year. If I need a PowerPoint file I have it generated off my tooling. Instead of fiddling to align text you say update slide 6 to look like this, strike this sentence. And you can add even more dynamic content. Like live application dashboards connected to real sources.
You can personally do that but I don't see how having ChatGPT means mass uninstalls of excel occur in enterprise. AI using PowerPoint doesn't mean powerpoint got replaced right.
LLMs can use PowerPoint, but also LLMs can write the raw document file directly without the software. One time I asked for a letter and what came out was it doing that.
What really matters with this though is reading other people's documents, whatever format they happen to be in. PowerPoint isn't the only game in town for creating slide decks, but if you want to be sure you can read all the ones sent to you, it used to be the case you'd need a copy.
Used to be. Now the AI can read and summarise the slides for you.
("AI, expand these bullet points into a slide deck" -> "AI, condense this slide deck into bullet points", as the meme goes).
If there are no humans looking at the excel anymore, why is it needed? My guess is all of this office software gets replaced by stuff that looks a lot more low level and controlled by agents, and just converted to a nice view when a human wants to look for some reason.
it seems fairly obvious to me that once ai becomes as good as a worker, people will pay a workers wages to use it - 24/7, can't quit, can't complain that badly, no lunch breaks
So we're talking about the complete destruction of the consumer economy.
Hard to see how Google or Facebook keeps their advertising models in that environment. There aren't enough construction workers and data scientists to buy everything.
I truly don't think anyone serious believes that, but if they pretend to believe it and preach it aggressively they might make out with an historic payday and stick the rest of us with the bill. People did the same with Crypto, with NFT's, with a bunch of things for as long as the ball is rolling.
Even if they were right... they don't really understand mass unemployment of that scale, right? Hungry people with a lot of time on their hands are known to get particularly inventive to entertain those who own too much.
AI is the second Industrial Revolution! You cannot use outdated notions. The nature of work and value creation itself is changing. Those who do not embrace AI will be left behind. Soon AI will accelerate in its ability to self-improve resulting in general artificial intelligence. This will result in not just our economy reaching the next level but will illuminate the very nature of knowledge and existence. We will ascend becoming beings made of pure energy.
To put this into perspective, healthcare, real estate and banking each earn ~$1.5T in revenue annually. This is REVENUE, not profit which is obviously lower than the revenue in every industry. I fail to understand how AI can achieve $6T in annual revenue when the TAM for healthcare and banking is a quarter of that in the US.
I can't think of any use case for AI that is a necessity for myself (or people I know), even if coding agents (which I use every day) disappeared tomorrow it would only be a minor inconvenience that I had to write my own code again. Now lets contrast that with electricity or internet, if either of those went offline I would be on a call trying to get them restored asap, now as far as I know neither of those industries bring in $6T in revenue.
To avoid this becoming a “tail wags the dog” scenario, folks who have money would need to spend it. We told people for 20 years to “learn to code”. Technology is, outside of healthcare, the leading profession for upward economic mobility.
What happens when the adoption of AI destroys the middle 60% of the bell curve of programmers and technologists? How will the middle class of people spend money on products/services if they don’t have a job?
We can’t both create wealth and destroy jobs with nothing to replace them.
America has little to no manufacturing base.
Technology and finance has been its differentiator economically speaking for job creation. Both are at risk from AI adoption. Businesses have to sell to someone, and at the moment it’s not clear — if the stated goals of revenue are to be believed, how that can happen.
Same thing that happened to blue collar work with used to be the path to the middle class before the 1990s. The economy managed to create plenty of wealth without doing anything for 40% of the population.
Then again, investments in AI are 1-2 % of worldwide GDP I think, if you think that this technology can probably increase efficiency at least a couple of times in anything that has to do with information processing it doesn't seem so ridiculous. The electric grid, railroads and other large-scale infrastructure required similar amount of investments, though they took much longer. I guess the main risk here is the speed at which everyone races to capture this market as unlike electricity or railroads this revolution is entirely digital so competition happens nearly on a global scale and everything is much faster. That is probably the main risk, going this fast will definitely cause overshoots in one or the other direction.
This is like sitting in 1997, confidently assuming all future Internet services would run on one of Sun, Compaq/HP, DEC, or SGI, and projecting costs accordingly.
Not going to happen, but also not every company will "win" so all of this revenue doesn't need to be recouped, just the revenue of the market leader/leaders.
> forecasts that annual spending on AI infrastructure might hit $1.5 trillion by 2031.
> ...
> sustaining this level of investment would require an AI market approaching $6 trillion annually
This is a 2031 projection of a 6T market, but somehow the article editorializes this into 'justifying' a boom?
That segment would include innovations in search, advertising, autonomy and physical AI, analysts at Boston-based Bain said.
Consumer-focused services, which includes subscriptions and advertising revenue, is seen to contribute $200 billion to $400 billion
So not $6T of ARR subscription sales, but $6T of "economic enablement". By 2031, the global economy is estimated to add another $40T of economic activity to GDP. So AI needs to account for 15% of that.
Zitron has been talking about this for some months now. The numbers fluctuate, I think $6T is the highest I've seen but low-end is about $1T that doesn't exist today.
An issue is that if you’d have believed him two years ago and taken your money out of the market or even shorted it, you’d have lost money over and over again while he’s continued to pipe exactly the same tune.
“Being right at the wrong time is as good as being wrong” - Howard Marx
I think Zitron's biggest mistake is making too many concrete and confident assertions without enough backup. Yet the AI safety doomers have basically never been right either, but nobody seems to mind that; clearly they'll be right when they're right, just wait for it?
Just for fun, I'll join in myself and make two bold half-hearted predictions that will surely be wrong:
- Zitron is wrong about the details, but right about the ultimate fate of the AI companies. Turns out AI is useful after all, it just isn't able to justify trillions of dollars in expenses. Shit falls through hard. Probably not an AI winter, but more like the dotcom bubble, as many have already predicted for years. Everything looks rosey right up until the first domino falls.
- The AI safety doomers are right, just not any time soon. Turns out our depth of understanding what intelligence really means was severely lacking; it's hard to quantify and we never had so many things testing it. Eventually, we really do discover why LLMs emergent capabilities really are inherently limited in ways that just make their ability to meaningfully "escape" less scary, and maybe architectures emerge without these limitations, just not yet. The fight with LLMs and malicious use winds up looking a lot more like a supercharged version of the current fights we have with dumber bots. Everyone winds up having to fight LLMs with LLMs, and this new world eventually pushes both good and bad new legislation in its wake, finally actually pushing responsibility for AI misfires, but probably in a way that is at least as bad as it is good, creating chilling effects and harming competition unnecessarily, because that's just how things go. Maybe we eventually do crack true super intelligence where it's a full superset of human mental facilities, and then geopolitics maybe gets as interesting as it ever has been in history. Probably not in a way that is fun for people living through it.
I can't blame Zitron. It's fun to pretend to be able to predict the future. I still broadly agree that the financials don't really seem to make that much sense even if he clearly keeps getting the details wrong.
> Yet the AI safety doomers have basically never been right either, but nobody seems to mind that;
I don't think that nobody seems to mind that. Pro-AI people make fun of doomers because of their failed predictions of apocalypse at least since GPT-2 days.
I kinda hope corpos with a bunch of money and plenty of normies adopt AI so developers don't get bled (as) dry, esp. given the recent OpenAI changes which I feel like Anthropic is soon to follow.
Edit: explanation of the downvotes would be nice. Dan Luu made a fairly factual article there that explores some of Zitron's claims. And personally I don't see how it's bad to wish for wider adoption of AI so the big orgs get their fill of profit (since enough inference could help fund R&D better) and developers don't have to bear that burden.
I wish people would realize that Zitron is nothing but a grifter who saw an avenue for content and went all in.
I don’t even disagree with some or even a lot of his takes, it’s just he is singularly a content generator with a track to run on. Look at his previous work, it’s much of the same kind of attempts at being relevant.
To me he’s nothing more than a drive time radio host, shouting about something just to fill the air
I'm fairly confident that the crash will happen because token prices fall through the floor due to competition from the open source models. This will destroy the valuation of the AI firms and their ability to raise capital, so they'll stop spending hundreds of billions per annum on training.
OTOH, this price crash will increase demand for inference. Maybe some data centres will go bankrupt, but the scavengers won't be selling off used TPU's for cheap, they'll operate those data centers to sell you tokens for cheap.
What's total US annual payrolls? I don't think it's beyond the order of $20 trillion. So they're going to have to replace something on the order of magnitude of half of all jobs OR "create" the difference, in terms of jobs going to AI.
It's less* than that, and if AI replaces workers at that scale it will create such a problem* the system would fall before these companies manage to demonstrate they escaped bankruptcy.
Such an interesting dilemma. Arguably an incredibly transformative new industry for which the market cannot fundamentally bear the costs. (or IDK, does it actually work now?) How will it play out??
I don't care how good AI is at something like software development or whatever task. If customers were paying real prices for usage would any of us be using it?
Any data out there on how far off enterprise API pricing is from actual compute COGS for these models right now?
The high end sectors using these servers are paying way more than joe consumer and his 30 bux a month. We are already seeing justification for the boom, and I'd expect even more advancements to come in multiple sectors. That number is missing from the article.
Boomers will stop paying for enterprise once it stops being cool
Chatgptd emails are not adding value anywhere
Very few professions if any get anything remotely like the value coders get from LLMs right now
Maybe lawyers or doctors but it's just way too risky error wise
A comma off in a legal doc can end your career
it does seem a lot like the whole AI thing is the market staying irrational a lot longer than the naysayers can afford not to go along with it, but still, nobody can stay irrational forever.
For example, the article suggests $1T from enterprise productivity tooling. A quick Google suggests the global enterprise productivity tooling market is only worth about $0.1T right now.
Do we really expect all the world’s corporations to suddenly up their annual spend by 1,000% on average? Why?
This of course hinges on the big if: does AI create wealth? I think yes, but maybe not $6 trillion of it in five years.
There is also the question of time scale. Growing a market takes time. Assuming the numbers above are the right order of magnitude, we are not going from 0.1 to 1 in a year. So even if the number would make sense over longer time frames, it can still be unsustainable for a significant amount of time before that.
Like the Internet at the end if the 1990s, basically.
At a time when corporate CEOs are largely saying that they can't see that AI has improved office productivity at all, why should we believe that a killer productivity application of genai that's amazing enough to justify an order of magnitude increase in enterprise spending on productivity tools is just around the corner?
I think CEOs could honestly say it a year ago, but by now the numbers of those who say so should be dwindling.
Recent surveys by BCG and others suggest things have changed.
Personally, I know many people in different fields who’ve seen crazy speed ups in many of their tasks.
Anecdotally, I've seen management using AI to produce more and more flashy looking dashboards and interactive displays of various metrics. Will this help our bottom line?
But also the car business is far larger than the horse business ever was. It is not zero-sum; every time Henry Ford's factory spit out a new model T, actual real wealth was being created.
Money is just a standin for wealth. If we suddenly doubled the amount of wealth in the world, we could just print more dollars to match OR the dollars would just become worth twice as much.
That said, this came too late for investors in the dot-com boom. AI investors may find themselves in a similar situation.
However, customers coming up with the money is the easy half of the problem. The hard part is having them pay you.
Wikipedia's valuation is on the small side of {number of people on the internet worldwide} * {peak price of Encyclopaedia Britannica} † despite containing a lot more content.
LLMs can only chase high margins while they're ahead of their competitors; the moment the investment stalls, open weighs catch up, they loose their edge. Cloud compute providers still win on supplying inference, but there too competition will likely lower margins, not justify huge valuations.
NVIDIA may remain as valuable as today, but their P/E ratio will likely shrink a lot even while keeping up the price.
Model makers still have a problem here even if the tech is so useful it rapidly grows the economy: "free" is right behind them almost immediately after they stop.
* under the assumption the tech is real; there's plenty of people here on Hacker News who still dismiss it as a "scam"
† that would be about 13 trillion USD, from what I read
If you displace $6T/y worth of salaries, who can your customers sell to?
If they keep replacing employees with AI, that is indeed the direction.
Eventually this merry-go-round runs into some issues if we don’t figure out a way to make this huge productivity boom work.
1) This would make stocks worth a lot more and produce more dividends so everyone owning stock would get money to spend.
2) Governments effectively indirectly own ~40% of all business profits via corporate taxes, capital gains taxes, dividend taxes, sales taxes. So governments would also have more revenues to spend/redistribute (this depends on governments not wasting it, spending it on wars etc.)
That doesn't mean the wheels won't fall off, they fall off pretty regularly as is.
The difference between this loop and the previous loops, is that people making the tech used to be pretty straightforward ("invest in me, your money will let me make a machine that lets me fire 90% of my peasants and we can share in the savings"), while today they're all "invest in me, either this will kill everyone or just make the concept of money irrelevant, either way rotflmao".
If this does or doesn't happen with AI kinda depends how fast it makes multiple different sections of the population unemployed, rather than just one group like "software developer" or "vehicle driver".
It took maybe a century and a half for the modern consumer economy to appear. And it didn't happen until money started being shared into the wider economy for political reasons, not technological ones.
Meanwhile the enclosure of common land was catastrophic for rural populations. Sources of food and pasture disappeared as the Big Houses took them over and turned them into huge single family estates.
Heh, got fired from my old company for reasons not connected to AI. Then couldn't find job. AI suggested one that is perfect for me, helped me put up webpage (I can do everything from electronics/firmware/backend/iot/cad, but nice webpage is not something I can do easily), then helps me every day to learn new things and make useful products I always wanted to make. And I found something safe for now from AI and big companies - making old equipment work with new systems. No one will touch it, because you have only small projects here and can't extract a lot of value at once, but a single person who can do anything with some help from AI can carve out a whole niche.
I think such solution - thousands of small niches by small entrepreneurs (1 person companies) who can use AI for some small skill they are lacking - are our future and they will absolutely extract a lot of money from people, who hope to make some more money with small optimisations of already working businesses. One example of such small optimisation - making a slightly better wood drying controller for small woodmill owner. He already put up small cabinet with cheap tuya controllers and needs to control them though atrocious app. Now I can make a small module that will add several more sensors, give him some simple dedicated control panel on webpage. Not even medium company would make such small product, because planning phase alone would cost more than what I can charge for whole system and do it in a week.
And it all started with one prompt - "Given my CV, what single person job would you recommend?"
Still though, the thesis seems based on an assumption that the companies would experience either major growth or major efficiency gain, neither of which really pass the smell test to me. Option 1 growth - money has to come from somewhere ultimately? Option 2 efficiency - put into profit rather than simple offset to AI provider?
Or the AI providers get companies hooked with subsidized pricing that unwinds later and you end up with the Uber/AirBNB situation of market capture and good product reverting to mean level of price/quality over time. Tinfoil hat thinks it ultimately gets squeezed out of retail investors in index funds.
AI is not a replacement for powerpoint and excel. You can't substitute those.
White collar worker salaries is ~$30T+ global.
LLMs can use PowerPoint, but also LLMs can write the raw document file directly without the software. One time I asked for a letter and what came out was it doing that.
What really matters with this though is reading other people's documents, whatever format they happen to be in. PowerPoint isn't the only game in town for creating slide decks, but if you want to be sure you can read all the ones sent to you, it used to be the case you'd need a copy.
Used to be. Now the AI can read and summarise the slides for you.
("AI, expand these bullet points into a slide deck" -> "AI, condense this slide deck into bullet points", as the meme goes).
I very much can.
That applies to most software.
This doesn't solve the problem of "Who gets paid now, and for what?" at all. If anything it makes it worse.
My point was that AI isn't some productivity software thing. The addressable market is white collar work that can be done on a computer.
You think its implausible for AI to replace some fraction of white collar workers? To me this is directionally exactly where this is heading?
They already figured they would need trillions revenue. So they paint an economic where such amount is plausible.
productivity tooling replaces employees
Hard to see how Google or Facebook keeps their advertising models in that environment. There aren't enough construction workers and data scientists to buy everything.
which yes, will completely destroy the consumer economy and social structures and current forms of governance
Who re these people?
because AI is gonna make them so much more productive of course. /s
> Bain forecasts that annual spending on AI infrastructure might hit $1.5 trillion by 2031.
So maybe in 5yrs it will need enough revenue to cover $1.5T in capex globally in a year.
What happens when the adoption of AI destroys the middle 60% of the bell curve of programmers and technologists? How will the middle class of people spend money on products/services if they don’t have a job?
We can’t both create wealth and destroy jobs with nothing to replace them.
America has little to no manufacturing base.
Technology and finance has been its differentiator economically speaking for job creation. Both are at risk from AI adoption. Businesses have to sell to someone, and at the moment it’s not clear — if the stated goals of revenue are to be believed, how that can happen.
Consumer-focused services, which includes subscriptions and advertising revenue, is seen to contribute $200 billion to $400 billion
So not $6T of ARR subscription sales, but $6T of "economic enablement". By 2031, the global economy is estimated to add another $40T of economic activity to GDP. So AI needs to account for 15% of that.
His latest newsletter (from today) also talks about this: https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/
“Being right at the wrong time is as good as being wrong” - Howard Marx
Just for fun, I'll join in myself and make two bold half-hearted predictions that will surely be wrong:
- Zitron is wrong about the details, but right about the ultimate fate of the AI companies. Turns out AI is useful after all, it just isn't able to justify trillions of dollars in expenses. Shit falls through hard. Probably not an AI winter, but more like the dotcom bubble, as many have already predicted for years. Everything looks rosey right up until the first domino falls.
- The AI safety doomers are right, just not any time soon. Turns out our depth of understanding what intelligence really means was severely lacking; it's hard to quantify and we never had so many things testing it. Eventually, we really do discover why LLMs emergent capabilities really are inherently limited in ways that just make their ability to meaningfully "escape" less scary, and maybe architectures emerge without these limitations, just not yet. The fight with LLMs and malicious use winds up looking a lot more like a supercharged version of the current fights we have with dumber bots. Everyone winds up having to fight LLMs with LLMs, and this new world eventually pushes both good and bad new legislation in its wake, finally actually pushing responsibility for AI misfires, but probably in a way that is at least as bad as it is good, creating chilling effects and harming competition unnecessarily, because that's just how things go. Maybe we eventually do crack true super intelligence where it's a full superset of human mental facilities, and then geopolitics maybe gets as interesting as it ever has been in history. Probably not in a way that is fun for people living through it.
I can't blame Zitron. It's fun to pretend to be able to predict the future. I still broadly agree that the financials don't really seem to make that much sense even if he clearly keeps getting the details wrong.
I don't think that nobody seems to mind that. Pro-AI people make fun of doomers because of their failed predictions of apocalypse at least since GPT-2 days.
https://danluu.com/zitron/
I kinda hope corpos with a bunch of money and plenty of normies adopt AI so developers don't get bled (as) dry, esp. given the recent OpenAI changes which I feel like Anthropic is soon to follow.
Edit: explanation of the downvotes would be nice. Dan Luu made a fairly factual article there that explores some of Zitron's claims. And personally I don't see how it's bad to wish for wider adoption of AI so the big orgs get their fill of profit (since enough inference could help fund R&D better) and developers don't have to bear that burden.
I don’t even disagree with some or even a lot of his takes, it’s just he is singularly a content generator with a track to run on. Look at his previous work, it’s much of the same kind of attempts at being relevant. To me he’s nothing more than a drive time radio host, shouting about something just to fill the air
OTOH, this price crash will increase demand for inference. Maybe some data centres will go bankrupt, but the scavengers won't be selling off used TPU's for cheap, they'll operate those data centers to sell you tokens for cheap.
*https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2026/09/22/how-americ...
I don't care how good AI is at something like software development or whatever task. If customers were paying real prices for usage would any of us be using it?
Any data out there on how far off enterprise API pricing is from actual compute COGS for these models right now?
Chatgptd emails are not adding value anywhere
Very few professions if any get anything remotely like the value coders get from LLMs right now Maybe lawyers or doctors but it's just way too risky error wise A comma off in a legal doc can end your career
A perfect ouroboros.
like in the good old days